The Cattle Business

Livestock Update, March 2000

Bill R. McKinnon, Extension Animal Scientist, Marketing Virginia Tech

The latest U. S. Cattle Inventory Report seems to indicate that the liquidation phase of the current cattle cycle may be drawing to a close. Cow slaughter slowed during the second half of 1999; which in turn slowed the nation's cowherd reduction rate from that of recent years. Many experts expect the liquidation of the country's cowherd to halt during 2000 with a trend toward heifer retention to begin.

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January 1, 2000 U.S. Cattle Inventory Report
	2000	1999	2000 as a % of 1999
					(million head)	(million head)	All cattle and calves	98.0	99.1	99
All cows that have calved	42.7	42.9	100
Beef cows that have calved	33.5	33.7	9
Beef replacement heifers	5.5	5.5	100
Steers over 500 lbs.	16.7	16.9	99
Calves under 500 lbs.	16.8	17.3	97
	1999	1998	1999 as a % of 1998
Calf crop	38.7	38.8	100

Cattle feeding profits during most of 1999 fueled tremendous demand for feeder cattle during late 1999. Cattle on feed numbers have been running 6-8% ahead of the previous year and 3% more than two years earlier. Feedlot bids have been pulling calves directly into the feed yards, bypassing more traditional backgrounding and stocker operations. Heavier weight yearling cattle should be in much shorter than normal supplies in the third and fourth quarter of 2000.

The strong demand from cattle feeders has also attracted heifers in near record numbers to the feedlot and away from the replacement female pool. Since August of 1999, heifers had made up 36 to 38% of the cattle on feed which is significantly higher than the normal rate of heifers on feed. The large number of heifers on feed is considered to reflect liquidation pace and contributed to the record beef production of 1999. Only in the most recent Cattle on Feed report (February 1, 2000) were heifers down to 32% of all cattle on feed. The most recent drop in the relative number of heifers in the on-feed mix is still at relatively high levels but may suggest a move toward an increase in heifers retained for breeding.

The Virginia numbers contained in the inventory report seem to reflect the impact of the drought of 1999. The reduction in Virginia cattle numbers might have been even greater if not for the fall rains east of the Blue Ridge which produced some much need fall grazing. The Virginia numbers also reinforce the notion that stocker cattle for yearling grazing programs in 2000 will be in short supply.

Virginia Cattle Inventory January 1, 2000
	2000	1999	2000 as a % of 1999
					(1000 head)	(1000 head)
All cattle and calves	1600	1700	94
All cows that have calved	780	810	96
Beef cows that have calved	661	688	96
Beef replacement heifers	112	115	97
Steers over 500 lbs.	175	190	92
Calves under 500 lbs.	370	410	90
	1999	1998	1999 as a % of 1998
Calf crop	720	740	97
Operations with cattle	28,000	29,000
Operations with beef cows	23,000	23,000

Using the most recent inventory report places Virginia 21st in the nation in total cattle numbers. Virginia ranks 18th nationally in beef cow numbers.

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